The funds for consistent returns – Update June 2022

I'm opposed to buying and holding actively managed funds for the long-term as you are more likely to make more money by regularly reviewing them.

However, I understand that there are times when you might not want to or can't switch your funds as often as you might want. For example, you may have a pension scheme that offers a limited choice of funds or restricts the number of switches you can perform. Or it may be that you like to have a core stable selection of funds in your portfolio around which you more actively invest to boost returns.

You will probably already be familiar with my Perfect ISA Portfolio which focussed on the perfect asset mix for consistent returns. However a few years ago I carried out a piece of research identifying funds for consistent returns. In other words, are there any funds out there that seem to consistently outperform their peers which aren't just focused on capital preservation? But taking this one step further are there any such funds which are also good momentum plays, as identified by our 80-20 Investor algorithm? So I've gone back and refreshed the research as I do periodically.

Long-term outperformance screen

It's a fact that 90% of fund managers fail to beat the market over the long term which has been shown by numerous pieces of research. Yet there are a few that have. However, judging overperformance or underperformance based on an arbitrary time frame can give a skewed result.

So instead I decided to analyse the performance of every unit trust out there (over 1,200 of them) versus each other over multiple time frames to produce a shortlist. I only shortlisted those funds that outperformed the average of their peer group (sector) over the following time periods:

• 1 year
• 3 years
• 5 years
• 10 years

Then to include an element of consistency the funds also had to show a similar level of outperformance in each of the last 5 years.

I also wanted to make sure that they were genuinely beating the market rather than simply doing better than their dud peers. So I also added a few screens which give an indication of fund manager skill. This would limit the likelihood that a fund manager had simply managed any outperformance by taking excessive risks in a rising market. These additional screens were namely:

Alpha

Alpha is a figure which measures a manager’s apparent skill at picking winning investments versus their benchmark. Alpha is the excess return versus the return of a fund’s benchmark (i.e the market). So a fund with a positive alpha indicates that the fund manager has outperformed through skill. While a negative alpha figure would indicate underperformance.

Sharpe ratio

The sharpe ratio is not a widely known statistic yet it indicates how much extra return a fund manager has achieved for the increased risk they have taken. There is nothing wrong with fund managers taking calculated investment risks if they result in additional returns for investors. So the higher a fund’s sharpe ratio the better.

Maximum Drawdown

Finally, I analysed how the funds had performed over the last 3 years and what the maximum fall during the period was for each fund. I then only included those with the lowest drawdowns versus their peers. 80-20 Investor tables include the drawdown figure (Max Fall) as it is useful but not published widely.

80-20 Investor algorithm screen

The above screening left just 10 funds (out of 1,200 unit trusts) which have shown a consistency of return over the medium to long-term (in various market conditions), yet doing so without taking unnecessary risk. The funds are shown below. Remember consistency, doesn't mean that the fund doesn't lose money in a market slump such as we are experiencing now, but that it has shown a consistent level of outperformance versus its peers over time.

In this update of the most 'consistent funds' research, I have highlighted in blue those funds that retained their place in the list from the previous update. Interestingly there are now no funds within the list that appear in either of the current BFBS or BOTB lists.

Name	Sector	ISIN Code	1 month return %	3 month %	6 month return %	Max weekly fall in the last 6 months	Ongoing charge
BM SVS Brooks Macdonald Blueprint Cautious Growth	Mixed Investment 20-60% Shares	GB00B054QH55	-2.21	-5.49	-9.02	-7.8	1.05
BNY Mellon Multi-Asset Growth	Flexible Investment	GB00B7YZFX71	-3.36	-4.54	-7.11	-6.64	0.84
COIF Charities Investment	Mixed Investment 40-85% Shares	GB0001877652	-0.41	-4	-10.32	-10.28
Fidelity Sustainable Global Equity Income	Global	GB0034204569	-3.57	-4.41	-7.98	-9.03	0.9
iShares North American Equity Index (UK)	North America	GB00B7QK1Y37	-3.83	-10.29	-13.3	-11.19	0.08
JPM Global Equity Income	Global Equity Income	GB00B6TPLD77	-2.49	-4.73	-4.92	-4.79	1.65
L&G UK Property	UK Direct Property	GB00BK35DV33	1.18	3.35	11.48	-0.36	0.75
L&G US Index Trust	North America	GB00B0CNGT73	-2.86	-10.31	-13.02	-11.74	0.1
Slater Recovery	UK All Companies	GB0031554248	-5.1	-7.63	-13.48	-11.18	1.58
Vanguard FTSE Developed World ex-UK Equity Index	Global	GB00B59G4Q73	-2.78	-9.28	-12.87	-10.6	0.14

 

 

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