The US election is now little over a month away and is an event that has the potential to move investment markets, as it did in 2016 and 2020. So I thought it an opportune time to look into how the 2024 US election might impact your investments.
The predictive powers of the US stock marketHistorically the US stock market has been pretty good at predicting the winner of past US elections. Based upon research, going back as far as 1928, the performance of the S&P 500 in the three months prior to a US election is a pretty good indicator of which party will win.
On 12 of the 15 occasions when the market rose during the three months before an election the incumbent party won. Conversely, on 8 of the 9 occasions when the market fell during the three months prior to an election the incumbent party lost.
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