Households are likely to get a slight reprieve from soaring energy costs this summer, as the latest forecasts indicate a drop in the Ofgem energy price cap from July. Energy analyst firm Cornwall Insight has released its final forecast for the July to September 2025 energy price cap, suggesting a drop of around 7% for the typical dual-fuel household. This would bring the average annual energy bill down from the current £1,849 to approximately £1,720, a saving of £129.
This predicted drop, while welcome, comes after a period of sustained high energy prices that have squeezed household budgets. Experts caution that even with the summer reduction, bills remain significantly elevated compared to pre-energy crisis levels. To reiterate this point, the predicted figure of £1,720 is £152 higher than for the same period last year (the July to September 2024 energy price cap).
Ofgem, the energy regulator, is expected to officially announce the new price cap level next week (around May 27th), which will be in place from 1st July to 30th September 2025.
Energy price cap predictions for July 2025
As well as the latest predictions from Cornwall Insight, three major energy providers now publish regular updates on where they think energy prices will be heading in the coming months. The actual energy price cap is set by the energy regulator Ofgem and is based on a number of factors, including the wholesale price of electricity and gas. Energy providers British Gas, E.ON Next and EDF are able to run this information through their own algorithms to form a prediction on where the energy price cap is likely to be set in the future. We have provided the latest forecasts below.
| Source | Predicted Annual Cost (£) from July 2025 | Predicted Change vs Current Price Cap (£1,849) | % Change vs Current Price Cap | Confidence Level (where stated) | Date of Forecast |
| Cornwall Insight | £1,720 | -£129 | -6.98% | N/A | 19 May 2025 |
| British Gas | £1,700 | -£149 | -8.06% | Medium | 19 May 2025 |
| E.ON Next | £1,733 | -£116 | -6.27% | Low | 19 May 2025 |
| EDF | £1,730 | -£119 | -6.44% | N/A | 19 May 2025 |
Energy price cap predictions for October 2025
Major energy suppliers now provide energy price cap forecasts that stretch as far as the summer of 2026. Current long-range forecasts from major suppliers suggest relative stability or minor fluctuations after the July drop, but with a high degree of caution. The low confidence ratings attached to these predictions underscore the ongoing volatility in global energy markets. Geopolitical tensions, unexpected weather patterns, or changes in global supply and demand can rapidly alter wholesale prices, making long-term forecasting extremely challenging.
| Source | Predicted Annual Cost (£) from October 2025 | Confidence Level (where stated) | Date of Forecast |
| British Gas | £1,705 | Low | 19 May 2025 |
| E.ON Next | £1,690 | Very Low | 19 May 2025 |
| EDF | £1,702 | N/A | 19 May 2025 |
Is now the time to fix your energy tariff?
The prediction of a falling energy price cap complicates the decision of whether now is the right time to fix your energy tariff. When prices were consistently rising, fixing offered protection against further increases, but with the prospect of lower variable rates from July, the decision isn't as straightforward. Ultimately, there is no single right answer. The best course of action depends on individual circumstances, usage patterns, and tolerance for risk. It is crucial to weigh the pros and cons carefully before making a decision.
What are the pros of fixing your energy tariff now?
While a summer decrease in energy bills is on the horizon, the longer-term outlook remains uncertain. Cornwall Insight suggests prices may remain relatively flat or see only modest decreases into early 2026, but this is highly dependent on global energy markets. Fixing your energy tariff now provides clarity on what you will pay and may help you to budget more effectively. Locking in your unit rates and standing charges for 12, 18, or even 24 months protects you from the market volatility that causes the price cap to fluctuate in the future. Additionally, some fixed-rate tariffs are priced below the level that the energy price cap is predicted to fall to in July. It means that fixing now could lead to immediate savings compared to staying on the current standard variable tariff, as well as offering protection against any future price cap rises. You can compare the latest energy deals below. You can also check out our article 'What is the cheapest fixed-price energy tariff?'.
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What are the cons of fixing your energy tariff now?
The primary drawback to fixing your energy tariff now is the potential to miss out on future price drops. Should the energy price cap fall more than anticipated in July, or continue its downward trend as we head towards the October 2025 and January 2026 reviews (though forecasts currently suggest this is less probable), customers on fixed deals might end up paying more or incurring an exit fee when they switch. Many fixed tariffs include early exit penalties, sometimes reaching £150 per fuel, which limits your ability to switch if your situation changes or much cheaper offers become available. It is worth noting that some suppliers (such as British Gas) will often waive exit fees if you move to another of their fixed tariffs and some suppliers offer fixed deals that you can leave without any early exit charges being applied.
What if you can't afford to pay your energy bill?
Even with energy bills predicted to fall in July, typical bills remain around £400 higher than they were in October 2021. If you find yourself struggling to pay your energy bills, there are a number of things you can do:
- Contact your energy supplier - Notifying your energy supplier that you are struggling to pay your energy bills means that they are obliged to help you find an affordable way for you to repay them.
- Check for grants and schemes - Contact your energy supplier and ask if you are eligible for any of their grants or schemes on offer.
- Pay your bills via your benefits - If you receive certain benefits, such as Universal Credit or Income Support, you may be able to come to an agreement with your supplier for your debts to be repaid directly from your benefits.
Check out the full article 'What to do if you're struggling to pay your energy bills' for more information.
Help if you're struggling to pay your energy bill
You may be able to clear your debt with your energy supplier via the Fuel Direct Scheme if you receive benefits. Alternatively, you may be able to get help with grants and schemes offered by your energy supplier or with the British Gas Energy Trust, which offers support for customers of all energy companies. For more information on the schemes available visit the Citizen's Advice website.
Finally, there are a number of charities and organisations that can provide free financial advice. We've provided links to a selection of the best websites below:
- MoneyHelper (previously the Money Advice Service)
- The money charity
- StepChange
- National Debtline
- Turn2us
- Citizens Advice
- Payplan
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