MTTM Podcast Episode 483 – Trump trade 2.0, unwinding pre-Budget pension withdrawals & energy market update

2 min Read Published: 24 Nov 2024

Listen to Episode 483

In this week's podcast, I discuss the potential impact of Donald Trump's return to the presidency on investment markets. Next, I explain the implications for those who withdrew tax-free cash from their pensions ahead of the budget, focusing on the potential tax penalties they may face if they try to put the money back into their pensions before giving some alternative options for using the withdrawn funds. Lastly, Andy explains the changes to the energy price cap and advises listeners on whether now is a good time to fix their energy tariffs.

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Podcast summary

The Trump Trade

This section looks at the "Trump trade" phenomenon, comparing the market reactions to Trump's presidency in 2016 and 2024. I highlight the sectors that performed well in 2016, such as North American smaller companies, financials, and technology stocks. I explain the current market reactions, including the surge in North American smaller companies and financials, and the underperformance of emerging markets and European equities. I also discuss the potential for a "Trump Slump" similar to what happened after Trump's first presidency.

Unwinding pre-budget pension withdrawals

I discuss the implications of taking out tax-free cash and the potential tax penalties if people try to put it back into their pensions. I highlight the importance of seeking professional advice for those wanting to put the money back into their pensions as well as explaining some alternative uses for the withdrawn cash.

Energy price cap update

Andy discusses the latest update to the energy price cap, which will increase by 1.2% from 1st January 2025. Andy explains the current and previous price cap figures and how they compare to last winter before explaining the importance of shopping around for the best fixed-price energy deals. Those considering fixing their energy tariff should take note of any exit fees as not all providers charge fees.

 

Episode quiz

Questions

  1. Which sector was the second best performing across all of Trump's first term in office?
    a) US equities smaller companies
    b) Financials
    c) Chinese equities
    d) Global equities
  2. Which of the following was the worst-performing US equity sector during Trump's first term?
    a) Energy
    b) Utilities
    c) Real estate
    d) Consumer staples
  3. What is the maximum tax charge someone could face if they fall foul of the pension recycling rules?
    a) 30%
    b) 40%
    c) 50%
    d) 70%
  4. What is the energy price cap figure for the current period from October 1st to December 31st 2024?
    a) £1,717
    b) £1,738
    c) £1,928
    d) £4,000
  5. Compared to last winter, how much cheaper will energy bills be this winter?
    a) 5%
    b) 10%
    c) 15%
    d) 20%

Answers

  1. c) Chinese equities
  2. a) Energy
  3. d) 70%
  4. a) £1,717
  5. b) 10%

Resources

Links referred to in the podcast: