Latest interest rate predictions – May 2013
UPDATE: This post relates to the May 2013, for the most recent interest prediction click here.
So when will interest rates go up?
Markets still think a rate rise is a long way off. In fact that don't believe the Bank of England Base Rate will rise to 0.75% until the Spring of 2018.
But why is a rate rise looking increasingly unlikely?
- NO official support for a rate rise but could negative interest rates be on the way? – last month the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), who are the guys who decide the UK base rate, once again voted to keep the base rate at 0.5%. But Paul Tucker, the Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, recently raised the prospect of a negative base rate but this was quickly downplayed by the MPC. This extraordinary measure would mean that some financial institutions would actually have to pay to deposit money with the Bank of England, which would hopefully encourage more lending to businesses and households instead. But negative interest rates are unlikely in reality.
- Inflation still proving sticky – the official measure of UK inflation has now crept up to 2.8% in March. The Bank of England now thinks that inflation will remain above its 2% target until 2016. It had previously claimed it would fall below 2% within the year. To combat inflation interest rates are usually increased.
- The UK economy avoided a triple dip recession! – Despite the excuses that were already being lined up (the snow etc), the UK economy actually grew by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2013. It might not be much it's start and helped avoid an unprecedented triple dip recession. In theory a growing economy increases the prospect of a rate rise but the recent fragility of the UK economic recovery will remain a major deterrent.
- The UK's credit rating was downgraded again- this time by Fitch, the credit ratings agency, which joined Moody's who had previously cut the UK's credit rating from the top AAA rating. Again, this was a result of the UK's poor growth prospects and ability to repay its debts being called into question. No one wants to become infamous for being the guy who snuffed out any economic recovery, so interest rates are certainly not going to be rising until the economy strengthens. Will the downgrade mean that rates will go up? Not in the short term although a weakening pound is likely to cause a spike in inflation at some point. If you want to find out more read my article 'How the UK credit rating downgrade affects your finances'.
- Unemployment has stopped falling – The number of people out of work rose by 70,000 to 2.56 million in the three months to February, escalating the recent trend of rising unemployment. The UK unemployment rate now sits at 7.9%. In theory a stable growing economy, will keep a lid on unemployment, and be more conducive to a rise in interest rates. But the latest unemployment figures are a blow, making a rate rise less likely.
- UK economic growth forecasts continue to be cut – be it by the Independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) , the Bank of England , the National Institute of Economic and Social research or the IMF. Raising rates would hammer consumers further and could derail any sniff of an economic recovery which would be bad news.
- Mervyn King doesn't want to raise rates – Mervyn King is the guy who heads up the group of people who set the bank base rate. Mervyn has previously said that there would be no rise in interest rates until there was clearer evidence that the economy was growing and that unemployment and the interest rates actually paid by consumers were falling. All three of these boxes have yet to be ticked and are unlikely to be any time soon. But then again Mervyn is not going to be in the job much longer as he will be stepping down in July.
So should you rush to fix your mortgage now while rates are low?
Luckily Dean, a mortgage specialist, recently answered this question in his article "Is now the best time to remortgage?" But if you want more help or advice then you can contact Dean by clicking on the 'contact an adviser' button below.
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